Radar Intelligence Terminal · Radar-Compass Strategic OS

The event is not the problem.
The event is what happens
when pressure releases.

Radar monitors twelve global system categories daily, identifies cross-category pressure clusters, and delivers a signal-grounded intelligence brief before anything else reaches your desk.

Access the terminal See sample outputs
Built for defence · investment · government · strategy
Supply Chain & Logistics
Energy Systems
Financial System Stress
Currency & Capital Flows
Military & Defence
Technology & Semiconductors
Trade & Sanctions
Political Stability
Corporate & Markets
Climate & Resources
Pandemic & Biosecurity
Information & Narrative

Most analysis describes what happened.
Radar reads what is building.

There is a particular kind of meeting that happens in most organisations at least once a quarter. Someone has pulled together the relevant data. The slides are clean. The people in the room are experienced and paying attention. And yet somewhere in the middle of the discussion, a question gets asked that nobody can fully answer — not because the information is not available, but because the information available does not quite add up to a picture.

"I feel like we're missing something." Nobody disagrees. Nobody knows what it is.

Silicon Valley Bank did not collapse suddenly — the structural vulnerability was visible in its own filings for anyone watching at the right level. The Ever Given did not create the vulnerability in global supply chains. It found it. The inflation cycle of 2021 was not a surprise at the level of the system — freight rates had been climbing for months, producer prices in China were moving, the signals were distributed across systems that no single actor was holding simultaneously.

The pattern is always the same. The event is the release of something that has been building. The pressure was accumulating before the headline arrived. Radar exists to read that pressure before it releases.

Twelve categories. Two criteria.
One daily brief.

Every day, Radar runs a full pipeline across twelve global system categories, applying a strict two-criterion signal test to every headline retrieved, identifying cross-category clusters, and producing a daily intelligence brief grounded in the signal record.

Step 01
12-Category system scan
~240 headlines retrieved across twelve domains simultaneously. Not sequentially. Simultaneously. This is the capability individual human attention cannot replicate.
Step 02
Two-criterion signal test
Does it reveal current system state or the approach of a structural threshold? Does it add new directional information? ~40 of 240 headlines qualify. The rest are noise.
Step 03
Cross-category cluster analysis
Signals from different categories connected by direct causal mechanism — not thematic similarity. Clusters reveal what no single-category analysis can see.
Step 04
Human gate
A human analyst reviews every cluster before synthesis proceeds. The machine finds the patterns. The analyst determines what they mean. Both are required.
Step 05
Daily intelligence brief
Nine sections: Executive Summary, Situation Map, What Is Already Locked In, What Is About To Change, Most Likely Trajectory, Most Dangerous Trajectory, Contrarian View, Watch List, Cluster Record.
Step 06
Interrogation terminal
Ask anything. Generate boardroom-ready documents and decks in seconds. Every answer grounded in the signal record. Radar does not speculate beyond what the data supports.

What Tier 1 signals look like

Real signals from April 12, 2026. Each names the mechanism, the number, and the implication — not the event.

Tier 1
Cat 4 — Currency & Capital Flows
Iran grants Hormuz transit to yuan-settlement vessels only
Selective transit conditioned on currency denomination creates a two-tier energy trade system — yuan-aligned states maintain Gulf connectivity while dollar-settled trade is structurally excluded. The petrodollar settlement architecture faces an operational challenge, not a theoretical one.
Tier 1
Cat 1 — Supply Chain & Logistics
Saudi East-West pipeline reaches physical capacity ceiling
Hard ceiling of 7 million barrels per day — no further bypass relief regardless of conflict developments. Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds 10-14 days and approximately $1 million fuel cost per vessel. Every pre-crisis inventory buffer calculation is now structurally wrong.
Tier 1
Cat 2 — Energy Systems
Ras Laffan helium buffer exhausted at approximately 45 days
Ras Laffan — the world's largest LNG export facility and source of ~30% of global helium — is issuing force majeure letters. South Korean chipmakers hold approximately six months of inventory before manufacturing constraints materialise.
Tier 1
Cat 7 — Trade & Sanctions
Supreme Court eliminates IEEPA tariff authority
IEEPA — the US emergency powers law that allowed tariffs imposed within hours without Congressional approval — struck down. Trade enforcement now requires Section 232 or Section 301 mechanisms with 3-5 year WTO dispute timelines, precisely when multiple crises require rapid policy response.
Cross-category cluster · April 12, 2026
Iran conflict destroys petrodollar settlement architecture
Cat 2 — Energy Systems · Cat 4 — Currency & Capital Flows · Cat 7 — Trade & Sanctions
The Iran conflict is mechanistically enabling yuan-denominated energy trade by disrupting the dollar-oil settlement system that has anchored USD reserve currency status since 1974. Iran's selective Hormuz transit — available only to yuan-aligned states — combined with Saudi Arabia's pre-war accession to the mBridge Chinese CBDC platform, creates an operational alternative settlement architecture. This is not a theoretical risk. Two vessels have already settled in yuan through a Chinese maritime intermediary.
Temporal flag — active and developing

What Radar produces.
Download and judge for yourself.

Real outputs from the Radar pipeline — not demonstrations, not simplified examples. Generated from the April 2026 signal dataset.

Daily Intelligence Brief
Global Chaos Radar — Sunday 12 April 2026
49 Tier 1 signals · 9 clusters · 9 active situations · 10 temporal alerts
Bottom line up front: The Iran conflict is mechanistically enabling yuan-denominated energy trade by disrupting the dollar-oil settlement system that has anchored USD reserve currency status since 1974. Supreme Court elimination of IEEPA removes the fastest-acting US trade enforcement mechanism precisely when multiple global crises require rapid policy response.
Download full brief (PDF)
Entity Analysis — Qantas Group
Strategic Risk & Opportunity Briefing — April 2026
60 Tier 1 signals · 9 clusters · 5 active situations · C-Suite confidential
Executive summary: The April 2026 Radar scan identifies a global operating environment of exceptional and compounding severity. The operating environment that existed before February 28, 2026 should be treated as permanently altered for planning purposes.
Download Qantas brief (PDF)
From the Qantas brief — The mid-April convergence (Cluster C1)
Three independent systems reach their limits simultaneously in the April 12-19 window.
Strategic petroleum reserves and exempted Russian/Iranian oil are exhausted simultaneously — supply loss doubles from 4.5 million to 9 million+ barrels per day. General License U — the US exemption permitting Iranian crude purchases — expires April 19 with no extension announced. The global helium buffer from Ras Laffan expires at approximately 45 days, affecting semiconductor manufacturing with downstream implications for avionics supply chains. The dataset characterises this as a convergence of systems that did not plan to arrive at the same moment — they converged because all are downstream of February 28.
CAT2-001 CAT7-003 CAT6-004 Signal record IDs — traceable to source dataset

Access the terminal.

All tiers include the full Radar pipeline, daily intelligence brief, interrogation terminal, and document generation. You supply your own Anthropic API key — Radar absorbs all search costs.

Individual
$497 AUD / month
or $4,970 / year — 2 months free
  • Full daily Radar pipeline — live or workbook upload
  • 9-section intelligence brief, streamed to your terminal
  • Unlimited interrogation grounded in today's signal record
  • DOCX and PPTX generation for every response
  • Single seat
Start — Individual
Bring your own Anthropic API key. A full pipeline run costs approximately $2-4 AUD in API usage.
Institutional+
$2,497 AUD / month
or $24,970 / year — 2 months free
  • Everything in Institutional
  • Up to 15 seats
  • Suitable for defence teams, investment committees, government agencies
  • Bearing Partners onboarding included
Start — Institutional+
Contact [email protected] for onboarding.

What makes this different
from a news service.

Signals, not events
News describes what happened. A signal reveals the condition of the system that produced it. Radar applies a strict two-criterion test to every headline — most fail. What passes is structurally significant.
Cross-category clusters
The oil supply constraint that is simultaneously driving shipping disruption, breaking bond-oil correlations, and enabling a petroyuan settlement mechanism is not three stories. It is one story — visible only when you are watching all three systems at once.
Mechanism, number, implication
Every Tier 1 signal verdict names the specific mechanism, states the specific number or threshold, and identifies the specific implication for adjacent systems. Not "reveals structural stress." The mechanism. The number. The implication.
Human gate
After cluster analysis, a human analyst reviews every cluster before synthesis proceeds. The machine finds the signals and identifies the patterns. The analyst determines what they mean. Both are required.
Grounded conversation
Every answer in the interrogation terminal is grounded in the signal record. Radar cites specific record IDs. It does not speculate beyond what the signal data supports. If it cannot answer from the dataset, it says so explicitly.
Positional advantage
The difference Radar makes is positional. Not a single better decision at a single moment — a consistent advantage that compounds across decisions over time. Seeing the signal before it becomes the event. More often.
Rob Wilson
Founder · Bearing Partners

Twenty-seven years in uniform, much of it at sea, some of it in command. The ocean does not wait for your reporting cycle. The threat does not announce itself on a schedule that suits your staff process. You learn, in that environment, that the quality of your decisions is largely determined before the moment of decision — by the quality of your reading of what is building toward it.

After the Navy: a startup in the cryptocurrency market of the mid-2010s, where the people who navigated it best were reading the system beneath the market — the leverage concentrations, the structural fragilities accumulating invisibly behind the performance. Then consulting to Navy capability, where an institution I knew intimately was not reading its own system — not because the people making decisions lacked intelligence, but because they had no systematic way of reading the system at the level where the real information lived.

Radar and Compass exist because I built them to solve a problem I was experiencing in real time. Pressure — How to See What's Building Before It Breaks is the book that makes the argument. The tools are the operational form of that argument.